notes/10 - Projects/CSC/Chapter 7/Three Theories.md
2026-03-30 03:23:09 -04:00

930 B

  • Expectations Theory (A) — Long-term rates reflect the market's expectation of future short-term rates. An upward sloping curve means the market expects rates to rise. Nothing to do with preference for liquidity.
  • Liquidity Preference Theory (C) — Investors prefer short-term bonds because they're more liquid and less price-volatile. They'll only go long-term if paid a premium for the extra risk. This is the one your answer described.
  • Market Segmentation Theory (B) — Different institutional players dominate different parts of the yield curve (banks = short-term, insurance companies = long-term). Supply and demand in each segment determines yields. This is the only theory that can explain all yield curve shapes including inverted and humped.

A memory trick:

  • Expectations = future rates
  • Liquidity = pay me more to go long
  • Segmentation = different players, different segments